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Timing Market Turns-2006: The Markets Through April 2006
Monday, January 9, 2006
After a rally to new highs this spring, most of 2006 will be a
downward tilting year for stocks, as will much of 2007. Forward
looking into any new year can be dicey for an investor or
trader. We see several...
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Are You Financially Fit?
When it comes to health, you go for a medical checkup to see if you're physically fit. The medical report will tell everything about your health.
But when it comes to wealth, it's as important that you do a regular checkup for your financial...
SECRET FEES MAKE MUTUAL FUNDS BILLIONS AT YOUR EXPENSE!
Many investors think that investing in mutual funds is free. What nonsense! Funds collect more than $50 billion a year in fees from investors. That is truly a ton of money. The first way you get hosed in a mutual fund is due to high fees charged....
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Stock Trading with an Offshore Brokerage Account
With an IBC (International Business Corporation), trading
offshore can have many advantages. Your offshore brokerage
account can be under your IBC company name, which ensures
privacy while trading because your personal name is never
revealed....
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Santa Claus Rally: Is a Year-End Stock Recovery Coming to Town?
Now that we are in the holiday season, you will be hearing more
about the so-called "Santa Claus Rally." It is a well-known
phenomenon, first discovered by Yale Hirsch and published in his
Stock Trader's Almanac. During this year-end rally, stocks tend
to advance, sometimes sharply, from the day after Christmas to
the first two days after New Year's Day.
But now, just as the retailers have extended the Christmas
shopping season to Halloween, the Santa Claus Rally has been
extended by traders to cover the final two to three months of
the year.
At Investment U, we want to answer three questions:
Is the Santa Claus Rally real? Can it be confirmed historically?
What is the cause of this year-end stock rally? Most
importantly, will we see a Santa Claus Rally this December? I've
done a great deal of research on this topic, and here are my
answers...
First, is the Santa Claus Rally historically factual? The answer
is yes. In terms of the original Santa Claus Rally, 65% of the
time (going back 100 years), stocks have advanced during the
week following Christmas Day, and have done better than December
as a whole.
In the past eight years, November and December have been
extremely bullish. Even during the bear markets, 2000-2003,
stocks rallied in the final two months. Looking at a chart of
the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and you would notice the steep
run-ups just before the annual vertical lines.
Analysts suggest several factors that drive the Santa Claus
Rally:
The end of tax-loss selling. A tendency for investors
to fund
IRAs and 401(k)s at the start of a new year. Financial
institutions and mutual funds seeking to be fully invested for
the New Year. Upbeat year-end stock forecasts for a good January
(the January Effect).
So, will we see a Santa Claus this year? Since October 1, the
Dow is already up 7%, and the Nasdaq 100 is up 15%. Here are
five good reasons why I believe we could see a continuation of
this stock rally:
The Fed may postpone raising rates. According to the minutes of
the most recent meeting, November 1, some board members oppose
further hikes in the Fed Funds Target Rate. Pressure is mounting
for the Fed to ease, especially with gas and oil prices down
from their highs in September.
The Fed is pumping new liquidity into the banking system. M2,
the broadest definition of the money supply, is now growing at a
7% rate, the fastest this year.
Corporate earnings are strong.
CPI inflation is likely to ease, following a sharp drop in
gasoline prices.
Long-term interest rates have fallen back under 4.5%.
In sum, it's time to stuff your Christmas stocking with stocks
and join the holiday merriment.
About the author:
Dr. Mark Skousen is a professional economist, financial advisor,
university professor, author of over 20 books, and
Chairman/Editor of Investment U. In the IU e-Letter, Dr. Skousen
helps nearly 300,000 readers become better investors with
actionable investment advice, including the Santa
Claus Rally article above
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